Mario Draghi’s Speech in the Spotlight
Global financial markets continue to fret over the after-effects of Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU). This week, market participants will keep an eye on the three-day financial forum on central banking in Portugal, to gauge how top central bankers respond to the Brexit-induced turmoil.
Today, a quiet trading calendar will keep Brexit-related news flow in the spotlight. There are no economic releases in the UK today. In the Euro zone, investors eagerly look forward to the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi’s speech, scheduled later today. Across the Atlantic, service PMI and advance goods trade balance data are due.
Pound Sterling – UK Markets
The Pound has extended its previous session losses against the US Dollar and the Euro this morning, as the currency struggles to shake off the spillover effect of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union. Earlier in the session, the British Finance Minister, George Osborne, tried to calm frayed nerves following the shock Brexit vote. He stressed that robust contingency plans were in place to deal with the immediate aftermath of the referendum. He added that the nation would not start leaving the EU until a new Prime Minister is in office. With a data-dry economic calendar in the UK today, investors will look forward to the nation’s Q1 GDP and manufacturing PMI data, due later this week.
On Friday, Sterling crashed to a 30-year low against the greenback, after the Brexit referendum vote to leave the EU stunned markets. Separately, the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, stated that the central bank is ready to provide £250 billion of additional funds to support financial markets.
US Dollar – US Markets
The US Dollar ended last week on a strong footing against most of its major peers, as investors sought solace in the safe-haven currency after Britain’s shocking decision to exit the EU. The recent renewed strength in the US Dollar presents the US Fed with new conundrum. The central bank might delay raising interest rates, amid fears of possible repercussions to the US economy from the ongoing Brexit-induced market turmoil. The Brexit shock comes come at a time when there are concerns that economic growth and job additions in the US are slowing. On the data front, new orders for US durable goods dropped more than expected in May. Further, a separate report from the University of Michigan showed a modest deterioration in US consumer sentiment for June.
Going ahead, the US Markit service PMI, advance goods trade balance and the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index data, are scheduled to release later today.
Euro – European Markets
The Euro continues to trade in the red against the US Dollar, as increased uncertainty led by the Brexit decision dampened investor sentiment around the shared currency. Further, concerns have risen that Brexit could feed the anti-establishment mood in the Euro zone, which might lead other nations to consider leaving the EU. Earlier in the session, reports indicated that Spanish elections delivered a hung parliament for the second time in six months, adding to the political uncertainty in Europe. Spain's acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's People's Party won the country's unprecedented repeat elections but fell short of a majority to form a new government. On the data front, the Euro zone’s private sector credit advanced in May. Going ahead, markets look forward to the ECB President, Mario Draghi’s speech, due later in the day.
On Friday, data showed that Germany’s Ifo business climate index advanced more than anticipated in June, reaching its highest level since November 2015. Moreover, the nation’s current assessment and business expectations indices also rose above expectations in June.
Other Currencies – Highlights
The Kiwi Dollar extended its previous session losses against the greenback this morning, as the UK’S shock decision to leave the EU continued to weigh heavily on market sentiment and triggered a rush towards the safe haven US Dollar. Earlier in the session, data showed that New Zealand posted a trade surplus for the fifth consecutive month in May, with both exports and imports stronger than forecasted. An increased international demand for forestry products and kiwifruit boosted the nation’s exports. On the other hand, shipments of milk powder, butter and cheese fell last month. Looking ahead, a couple of economic releases in New Zealand this week, including building permits and business confidence data for month of May and June, respectively, will be on traders’ radars.
On Friday, the Kiwi Dollar reacted strongly to the surprising Brexit referendum vote and dropped for the first time in eight sessions against the US Dollar.