Global Financial Markets on the Road to Recovery
It’s been over a week since the historic referendum which saw Britain vote to exit the European Union after forty years of membership. The surprising decision threw the global financial markets out of gear and the aftertaste still lingers. But slowly the dust has begun to settle and markets across the globe have started to limp back to normalcy. At the same time, political leaders and central bankers on both sides of the English Channel are taking turns to calm down the roiled markets and prepare market participants to adapt to this radical new landscape.
A couple of data points saw the light early today. The UK’s construction PMI declined at its fastest pace since 2009 in June, while the Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence index sharply deteriorated in July. Next up for release is the region’s producer price index data for May. The US markets remain closed for the Independence Day holiday today.
Pound Sterling – UK Markets
The Pound is trading mixed against the US Dollar and the shared currency this morning. The just out data showed that UK’s construction sector activity fell more than expected to a seven-year low level in June, amid Brexit fears. Looking ahead, this week will be pretty busy for Britain, with a slew of economic releases lined up. Crucial data points such as the UK’s Markit services PMI, industrial production, manufacturing production, total trade balance, BRC shop price index and the NIESR GDP estimate for the three months ending in June, along with the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest financial stability report, are up for release this week.
Fresh out of its post-Brexit plunge, the Pound suffered another blow towards the end of last week after the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, bluntly stated that the central bank could cut interest rate by August. On Friday, offering some relief to the battered UK economy, the nation’s manufacturing sector surprisingly rose to a five-month high level in June, buoyed by robust growth in new work and output.
US Dollar – US Markets
The greenback is trading higher against its major peers in the morning session. The US markets will remain shut today for the Independence Day holiday. Although this week begins on a lighter note for the US, economic activity will gain pace slowly as the week progresses. However, the most notable risk events are scheduled towards the end of this week. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its June meeting minutes and any specific reference to the Fed’s plan to act on the Brexit vote will influence the US Dollar. This week ends with the main highlight, the US nonfarm payrolls data for June. After the previous month’s shocking result, concerns are that if the report throws up a second disappointing reading it will highlight a scary trend that can rattle US financial markets.
On Friday, a report from the Institute for Supply Management showed that US manufacturing activity rose for the fourth straight month in June. In contrast, the nation’s construction spending surprisingly declined in May, falling for the second consecutive month.
Euro – European Markets
The shared currency is trading lower against its major peers this morning. The just released data showed that the Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence index dropped to an eighteen-month low in July. Earlier in the session, the number of unemployed people fell more than expected in Spain during the month of June. Further ahead, market participants look forward to the Eurozone’s producer price index data, which is anticipated to post a rebound in May.
On Friday, unemployment rate across the Eurozone fell in line with market expectations to its lowest level since July 2011. Further, the Euro area manufacturing sector activity gathered momentum in June. Separately, the European Central Bank’s Chief Economist, Peter Praet, issued a stark warning that the recent Brexit vote could derail the Eurozone’s tentative economic recovery. He further stated that the ensuing uncertainty generated by the referendum might weigh on the region’s economic confidence and may also partly reverse the recent improvements in investment and consumption.
Other Currencies – Highlights
The Canadian Dollar has managed to extend its winning streak against the greenback this morning, boosted by a rise in oil prices. Further ahead in the session, Canada’s RBC manufacturing PMI for June is scheduled for release. The indicator pointed towards a slight expansion in May and is expected to continue further on the expansionary path. Additionally, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to release its quarterly business outlook survey report, which will provide a snapshot of the hiring, spending and investment plans of Canada’s business sector. As the week progresses, Canadian economic data releases will gather pace. These include Canada’s housing starts, unemployment rate, international merchandise trade and the Ivey PMI data.
Last week wrapped up on a positive note for Canada as the nation’s GDP rebounded in line with market expectations in April and cut short the dreadful string of two consecutive declines.