GfK Shows Consumer Morale Remains Unchanged
The GfK report released earlier today revealed that consumer confidence in the UK remained subdued for November. Separately, another survey showed that the annual pace of house price growth eased for November. This has brought some relief to BoE officials, especially after the central bank introduced tougher lending measures earlier this year to avoid Britain’s housing market from overheating. Meanwhile, the OPEC members kept crude output unchanged at their meeting yesterday, thereby weighing heavily on crude oil prices and the Canadian Dollar.
With a light economic calendar across the Atlantic today, market attention is expected to remain on the preliminary Euro zone consumer price inflation data. Any downside surprise in these numbers is likely to boost prospects of further stimulus measures in the Euro bloc.
Pound Sterling – UK Markets
The Nationwide survey released earlier today showed that house prices in the UK rose at a slower pace for a fourth consecutive month for November. Additionally, the GfK report released overnight showed no signs of improvement in consumer morale in the UK for November. This has stoked some concerns among investors, especially after this week’s revised UK GDP data for the third quarter showed that the pace of economic growth in the nation remained mostly supported by strong government spending. Amid recent calls from the British Chancellor to achieve austerity targets before the elections next year, traders will eye developments on the domestic spending front to verify if it can keep the nation’s economic growth supported going forward. Additionally, investors will keenly eye the UK Treasury’s autumn forecast statement scheduled next week to get a broader insight into next year’s government spending targets.
The Pound is trading in a tight range against the majors this morning. With crucial preliminary inflation data scheduled in the Euro zone later today, traders in the Pound-Euro pair are likely to remain on their toes.
US Dollar – US Markets
In the absence of domestic macro releases in the US yesterday on account of the Thanksgiving Day holiday, the greenback gained ground against commodity currencies after global crude oil prices dropped sharply. The decline in oil prices was triggered by the OPEC’s decision to keep its crude output unchanged at its meeting.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar is trading in a tight range against its key peers this morning. With no important economic events in the US today, market participants will eye today’s consumer price inflation data in the Euro zone as the prospects of more stimulus measures in the region cannot be ruled out going forward. In the forthcoming week, focus among traders is likely to remain on the nation’s labour market report which is expected to show that the unemployment rate in the US remained unchanged for November while the number of non-farm payrolls grew at a robust pace. Additionally, investors will keep a tab on the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and services PMI readings for November to get a broader insight into the nation’s macro conditions for the last quarter of 2014.
Euro – European Markets
Amid mixed economic data released yesterday, the Euro moved higher against the Pound, although it pared some of its gains in the latter half of the trading session. The German labour market report showed that the number of job additions were more than expected for November, resulting in the nation’s unemployment rate to remain unchanged at its multi-year low. Additionally, the GfK report showed that optimism among consumers strengthened for December. However, the preliminary German consumer price inflation data showed a second consecutive month of deceleration for November and strengthened prospects of a deflationary threat in the Euro zone. Against this backdrop, investors will eye Euro zone preliminary inflation readings later today which is expected to show an easing trend for November. Although these readings reflect the recent drop in energy prices, any downside surprise is likely to stoke concerns among investors.
Data released today showed that German retail sales rebounded on a monthly basis for October. However, the Euro showed little reaction and has remained range bound against the majors this morning.
Other Currencies – Highlights
The Canadian Dollar lost major ground against the greenback in yesterday’s trading session following a sharp drop in global crude oil prices. Amid no signs from any of the OPEC members to cut their crude output in their meeting yesterday, the prospects of a further decline in oil prices is likely to keep the Canadian Dollar under pressure against the majors. Meanwhile, market participants will keenly eye today’s GDP report in Canada which is anticipated to show that the nation’s economic growth slowed for the third quarter. Any downside surprise in today’s reading along with a sharp drop in oil prices is likely to build pressure on the Bank of Canada to act soon in order to improve the nation’s economic health.
In the week ahead, the Bank of Canada’s policy meeting along with the Canadian labour market report for November is anticipated to attract considerable attention among investors.