BoE Governor’s Speech in Focus
Today the spotlight will be on the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney’s speech, to gauge how the central bank would cope with the Brexit vote. On the economic data front, the just released UK’s final first quarter GDP came in line with preliminary expectations.
In the Eurozone, the flash version of the consumer price index (CPI) along with European Central Bank’s (ECB) June meeting minutes will be released today. The minutes will provide details about how worried the policymakers were regarding the central bank’s inflation mandate. It will also throw light on the members’ viewpoints about the consequences of Brexit. Across the Atlantic, focus will be on weekly unemployment claims and Chicago PMI for June. The St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President, James Bullard, is also scheduled to speak later today.
Pound Sterling – UK Markets
The Pound is trading higher against its major peers this morning. The just out data showed that UK’s final first quarter GDP went unrevised. However, the nation’s current account deficit failed to narrow as expected during the first quarter of this year. Earlier in the session, the latest poll from GfK revealed that UK’s consumer confidence remained slightly soft in June, prior to the referendum result. Further ahead, the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, will deliver a speech wherein he will try to soothe market jitters following the shock Brexit vote.
Yesterday, the EU leaders met for the first time without Britain and issued a stark warning that the UK will be allowed to access the bloc’s lucrative single market only if it agrees to allow free movement for European workers. Furthermore, the leaders reiterated that they will not initiate any negotiations with the UK until the country invokes Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Separately, the Fitch ratings agency warned that British firms will delay investment and hiring decisions as a result of the exit of Britain from the EU.
US Dollar – US Markets
The greenback continued to remain on the back foot against the shared currency and the Pound yesterday as, mostly in line with expectations, the US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index and personal spending data failed to provide any respite to the US Dollar. The core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, advanced as per economist estimates in May. Moreover, consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of the US economic activity, rose for the second consecutive month in May, led by an increased demand for automobiles and other goods. On the other hand, US personal income registered a slightly smaller than expected increase in May. Additionally, a gauge of upcoming home sales fell more than expected in May, a sign that the nation’s housing market is losing steam in the second quarter. Moreover, the number of US mortgage applications fell last week.
Moving ahead, today’s US economic releases includes weekly jobless claims and the Chicago-area business activity index for June, but these data points will have only a medium impact on the US Dollar.
Euro – European Markets
The Euro is trading lower against its major peers this morning. Data released earlier in the session showed that German retail sales rebounded above expectations in May, after falling for two consecutive months. Moreover, the nation’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 6.1% in June. In France a preliminary reading of the EU-harmonised inflation rose in line with market expectations in June, registering its highest level since January. However, the nation’s producer prices continued to remain weak in May. Also, French consumer spending fell more than expected in May. Moving ahead, the flash estimate of Eurozone CPI for June is due and is expected to record a flat reading. At the same time the region’s core inflation is expected to remain steady. Later today the ECB will release the minutes from its June meeting.
Yesterday Germany’s annual inflation had picked up pace in June. However, prices remained weak on a monthly basis. Separately, the Eurozone economic sentiment eased slightly in June ahead of the Brexit vote.
Other Currencies – Highlights
The Canadian Dollar has reversed its previous two consecutive session gains and is trading lower against the greenback this morning. Going ahead, market participants eagerly await Canada’s GDP data for April, scheduled to be released later today. After posting two straight declines, investors are expecting some good news from today’s report. In addition to this, Canada’s raw material price and industrial product price indices for May are also due today. Both these indicators are expected to post a robust increase in May.
During the previous two sessions, the Canadian Dollar managed to post gains against its US counterpart as a rebound in global risk sentiment and oil prices lent support to the commodity-linked currency. Looking ahead, it will be a busy next week in Canada, with a string of economic releases lined up. These include Canada’s RBC manufacturing PMI, housing starts, unemployment rate and the Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index data along with the Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey report.