All Eyes on the BoE Chief’s Response to Brexit
Today, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor’s speech will command maximum market attention. The BoE Chief, Mark Carney, who has been under intense pressure prior to as well as post the Brexit decision, is expected to elaborate on the central bank’s future plans after today’s release of the bi-annual financial stability report. Prior to the result, the Governor had come under fire for his one-sided intervention in the referendum campaign. However, post the shock Brexit vote, the BoE Chief managed to silence all his detractors and played an extremely pivotal role in assuaging the berserk markets.
In the UK, the just released data showed that services PMI fell more than expected in June. Meanwhile, the final services sector activity in the Eurozone came in better than the flash estimate. Later today the US will witness the release of durable goods orders data for May.
Pound Sterling – UK Markets
The Pound is trading on a weaker footing against the US Dollar and the shared currency this morning. The just out data showed that UK’s Markit services PMI declined more than expected in June, underlining concern over the health of the British economy. Moving ahead, investors await the release of the BoE’s bi-annual financial stability report in order to examine the post-Brexit risks to the British financial system. The BoE Governor, Mark Carney, is scheduled to hold a press conference after the report is made public. Last week, the BoE Chief had suggested that an interest rate cut is likely by August this year in order to cushion the blow of the economic impact following Britain’s shocking decision to leave the EU. Later in the day, the BRC shop price index for June will be up for release.
UK had an awful start to the week yesterday as the Pound came under renewed pressure after Britain's construction PMI suffered its worst contraction in seven years in June, adding to fears over a slowdown in Britain after the Brexit vote.
US Dollar – US Markets
The greenback is trading higher against most of its major peers in the morning session. Today, the US will witness the first set of data points for this week, as American markets remained closed for the Independence Day holiday yesterday. First up for release is the US ISM New York index for June which assesses business conditions among manufacturers and non-manufacturing organisations conducting business in the New York area. Closely following on its heels will be the nation’s factory orders and the final estimate of durable goods orders, both for the month of May, both of which have negative predictions assigned. Additionally, the US will see the release of the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index and is expected to register a slight uptick in July. Closing off the day’s releases will be a speech by the New York Fed President, William Dudley, who is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Looking ahead, the most significant activity this week will be the latest FOMC meeting minutes and the US nonfarm payrolls data for June.
Euro – European Markets
The Euro is trading mixed against the greenback and the Pound this morning. Data released earlier during the session showed that the final reading of Eurozone’s Markit services PMI rose more than expected in June. In Germany, the final services PMI came in higher than the preliminary estimate and remains comfortably above the fifty-mark threshold that separates expansion from contraction. In further good news, the Italian service sector retuned to growth in June. In Spain, services PMI unexpectedly advanced last month, posting its strongest increase since November 2015, as four of the five sub-sectors indicated strong activity thus fueling hopes that the economy will survive the political deadlock of two hung elections. Meanwhile in France, service sector activity stagnated in June. However, the flow of new business improved, indicating that the momentum could slowly pick up in the months ahead.
Yesterday, prices of goods leaving the Eurozone’s factory gates rebounded at its fastest pace in over a year in May, buoyed by a recovery in energy prices.
Other Currencies – Highlights
The Australian Dollar is trading lower against the greenback this morning. Earlier in the session, the Australian Dollar plummeted after the release of weak trade balance and retail sales data. Data showed that Australia’s foreign trade deficit widened in May as imports grew faster than exports. Moreover, the nation’s retail sales failed to provide the much required fillip as it increased at a slower than expected pace in May. While sale of food products increased, household goods retailing dropped during the month. However, the Australian Dollar erased some of its losses after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the official cash rate steady at a record-low level of 1.75% for the second consecutive month. Adding to this, the central bank did not explicitly mention the prospect of further rate cuts. The RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, noted that the next interest rate decision hinges on Australia’s second quarter inflation data which is due in late July.
In other economic news, Australia’s services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation’s GDP, cooled last month.