US economy to strengthen and inflation to rise, FOMC meeting reveals
What’s been happening?
UK: The Canadian prime Minister Trudeau has commented that Brexit will allow Canada to negotiate a larger and more ‘impactful’ trade agreement with the UK. The pound seems very range bound at present awaiting more definitive news from the BoE regarding interest rates. With much of the expectation of a hike in May already priced in, the market will look to comments today from Mark Carney to provide more clarity.
EU: Draghi was speaking at an ECB event for students and didn’t discuss monetary policy. He largely downplayed the impact upon the Eurozone of the current trade tariffs levied by the US and China. Draghi stated that geo political risks such as the diplomatic tensions between the European Union and Russia, and the worsening security situation in the Middle East, could be larger threats.
US: FOMC minutes revealed that all the Fed policymakers felt that the U.S. economy would strengthen further, and that inflation would rise. The decision to increase rates by 0.25 basis points was unanimous. The FOMC are currently wary about President Trump’s trade and fiscal policy. They should also be concerned in relation to a tweet made to the Russian ambassador to Lebanon where President Trump stated, "Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice, new and 'smart!' This was in retaliation following Russia ambassador’s comments stating that US missiles will be shot down. It seems like diplomatic necessity required for moments like these escapes President Trump and will do nothing but heighten geo-political concerns. The dollar could suffer because of this.
What’s coming up?
UK: BoE governor Mark Carney will be speaking today ad the market will listen for hints and comments relating to interest rate hike speculation which investors now give an 87% chance of occurring next month.
EU: 11:30 the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are released. This is potentially a market mover. Following this release, we have the ECB member Coeure speaking in Paris.
US: Initial Jobless Claims are set to be released to the market this afternoon.
RBA governor Philip Low warned yesterday that the central bank is concerned about the ongoing US-China trade war scenario and how it is impacting the global environment. As a result, AUD moved lower on the back of his comments across a basket of currencies: down 0.3 against the yen an 0.2% versus the US dollar. The Aussie also slipped due to iron ore prices moving lower. The yen has gathered pace against the pound after tension in Syria increased and CAD has risen due to oil prices moving higher due to tension in the Middle East.