Momentum remains with USD, as markets focus on looming GDP figures
What’s been happening?
UK: Cable (GBP/USD) recovered slightly yesterday from a six-week low, however dollar momentum remains. Upcoming UK GDP figures and Carney speech on Friday will be the focus of this week for sterling and as we have recently seen, the BoE head has a strong ability to move the pound around. Pressure on the BoE to increase rates has already been greatly reduced, yet final decision will be revealed during the Monetary Policy Committee, which will take place on 10th May. Will GBP weakness persist? We do know that the pound against the dollar has now fallen below key indicator levels and at present shows no signs of recovery, markets look ahead to Friday’s GDP release for confidence.
EU: European data continues to disappoint, as German IFO figures fall short of expectation. The market prediction was 102.7, instead a figure of 102.1 was delivered. Germany has always been the glue that holds Europe together, yet when looking at their recent form, the cracks are clearly beginning to show. European markets are firmly focused on Mario Draghi’s press conference on Thursday, which will follow the ECB rate decision. No change in rates is currently expected, but investors alike will listen to the tone and language that Mr. Draghi will be using in his public address.
US: The US dollar has held firm over the past few days, even though sterling recovered slightly yesterday. Momentum is still with the greenback, as the dollar experienced a boost yesterday with a stronger than expected consumer confidence figure coming in at 128.7. Friday is looking like a key day for Cable (GBP/USD), with GDP figures released from both the UK and the US, expecting the tug-of-war between the pair to continue. President Trump has been suggesting that there is now a very good chance of a trade deal with China, hence the dollar is set to hold firm ahead of Friday’s GDP figure release.
What’s coming up?
UK: Mark Carney will be speaking at 19:00 this evening. Markets will keep a watch on the language he uses and will look for clues regarding interest rates from the BoE ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in May.
US: GDP data will be released from the US this Friday. With a lack of any top tier data out of the States today, investors will focus on fundamentals and look out for any progress between China and the US regarding the recent trade war.
EU: France President Macron will be speaking today, however the ECB rate decision on Thursday, followed by Mario Draghi’s press conference shortly after are currently the main focus points for the European markets.
It’s a holiday in Australia and New Zealand today, so no data is expected. Japan will release its interest rate decision early hours on Friday, with their press conference to follow. The summit between the North and South Korea will also take place on Friday, the main focus of it being placed on North Korean nuclear weapons program.