Daily News

Britain’s Trade Deficit Worsens in the Fourth Quarter

February 09th, 2016

Economic news across the globe has quietly picked up pace today, this is amidst global growth concerns which came to the fore in the wake of recent market turmoil. In the UK, the just out economic data revealed that the nation’s trade deficit with the rest of the world widened in the fourth quarter, likely dragging on economic growth. Meanwhile, figures also showed that the UK trade gap in December narrowed more than estimates. This morning also saw a raft of relatively unimpressive German data. German factory output unexpectedly contracted in December and the nation’s trade surplus narrowed far more sharply than had anticipated. Later, the NFIB’s small business optimism and JOLTS job opening numbers are scheduled for release in the US.

Daily Currency News

  • Spotlight on BoE’s Rate Decision and Forecasts
    February 04th, 2016

    Spotlight on BoE’s Rate Decision and Forecasts

    The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep rates on hold again at today’s policy meeting. This is against a backdrop of global market turmoil and further decline in oil prices, in addition to comments made in January by the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, that the UK economy is not strong enough for a rate rise. Along with the policy announcement, markets will weigh in the BoE’s quarterly economic review and inflation forecasts today, to read between the lines for any changes in the central bank’s inflation outlook and its dovish stance with respect to the expected timing of the first rate rise.

  • UK Services Growth Surprisingly Picks Up in January
    February 03rd, 2016

    UK Services Growth Surprisingly Picks Up in January

    A number of key economic reports are scheduled for the day, amongst which the just published UK Services PMI index ticked unexpectedly higher for January, suggesting that the dominant services sector will continue to be the major growth driver in the UK economy. A surprise advance in both the manufacturing and services sector are likely to make Sterling investors more optimistic about the Bank of England’s (BoE) quarterly forecasts scheduled tomorrow. Moving ahead, Euro area retail sales data will be in focus amid expectations of a modest recovery on the back of a drop in oil prices. Across the Atlantic, services PMI and the ADP employment report due later in the day will be closely watched.

  • Pound Higher Following UK Manufacturing PMI
    February 01st, 2016

    Pound Higher Following UK Manufacturing PMI

    The start of February brings a busy day of economic news, wherein the focus will largely be on the state of the manufacturing sector of the major economies across the globe. The performance of the UK manufacturing sector had a better than expected start to 2016 on the back of improved domestic demand. Meanwhile, in the Euro zone, the manufacturing barometer came in line with the flash estimates for January, suggesting that the economy expanded at a moderate growth rate in the first quarter of this year. Across the Atlantic, a string of US economic data including personal income and spending data, PCE inflation numbers, ISM Manufacturing PMI and construction spending data are scheduled for release later in the day.

  • Busy Economic Calendar for US & Europe
    January 29th, 2016

    Busy Economic Calendar for US & Europe

    The economic calendar in the US and Euro zone stands busy with a slew of major economic releases today. In the Euro region, German retail sales unexpectedly declined in December, adding to worries that the Euro zone’s economic recovery is failing to gather pace. Separately, in France, economic growth slightly slowed for the fourth quarter, but rose on an annual basis. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in Britain unexpectedly climbed for January, defying worries over turmoil in global markets. Across the Atlantic, investor focus will be on preliminary growth figures for the fourth quarter which are expected to ease after rising sharply in the third quarter. Also, the consumer sentiment index by the University of Michigan and Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index will be in the spotlight.

  • UK Q4 GDP Slows Down from a Year Ago
    January 28th, 2016

    UK Q4 GDP Slows Down from a Year Ago

    Preliminary GDP data for the October – December period released just now has indicated that the UK economy modestly grew from the third quarter, while growth eased to 1.9% from a year ago. The latest fourth quarter growth estimates suggest that the economy has continued its reliance on the services sector for growth. In a few hours, the Confederation of British Industry is expected to release a sales survey report, which is forecast to show that the headline retail sales balance in January was slightly off from the prior month. In Europe, flash German inflation data and the Euro zone’s economic sentiment numbers are scheduled for release today. Across the Atlantic, attention will now shift from the recent Fed outcome to a string of major US economic releases including durable goods orders, jobless claims and pending home sales data.

  • Fed to Announce its First Rate Decision in 2016
    January 27th, 2016

    Fed to Announce its First Rate Decision in 2016

    The main focus today will be on the outcome of the two-day US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting and the publication of the FOMC statement later in the day. Although the Fed are unlikely to take any monetary policy action, markets will closely monitor the tone of the rate statement for signs of weakness within the US economy, given the recent turmoil witnessed across the world. On the economic data front, a report on purchases of newly built homes is due in the US later today. In the UK, mortgage applications fell to a 7-month low in December, according to the British Bankers Association's most recent survey released just now. Earlier today, mortgage lender Nationwide reported that UK home prices rose at a slower than expected pace in January. In Europe, GfK survey results showed that German consumer confidence is set to remain steady in February.

  • BoE Governor and US Economic Data in Focus
    January 26th, 2016

    BoE Governor and US Economic Data in Focus

    In the absence of significant macro updates in the UK today, market focus will likely be on the testimony about the nation's financial sector to be given by the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, scheduled in a short while. Given the very dovish speech delivered by the BoE Chief last week, it is unlikely that he will offer any fresh hints to investors who are looking forward to a rate lift-off. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will also begin its two-day monetary policy meeting today after the previous month’s long anticipated rate increase. On the macro front, US house prices, CB consumer confidence and preliminary services sector activity data will be released today which will provide new insights regarding the likely impact of recent turmoil in the global economy on activity in the first quarter of 2016.

  • German IFO Data Signals Cautious Mood
    January 25th, 2016

    German IFO Data Signals Cautious Mood

    In a slow start to the new week, key economic data for the day was from Europe in the form of the Ifo survey numbers that tracked the dampened mood in the German business sector. The closely monitored Ifo business climate indicator and the sub-component current assessment index dipped lower in January. Aside from data, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) is due to give a speech later in the day, which will attract some market attention. The Euro had fallen broadly across the board last week after the ECB Chief hinted at a possible policy action in March. In the session ahead, an update of the UK’s CBI industrial trends survey and the US Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing index are scheduled for release later today.

  • UK Retail Sales Drop in December
    January 22nd, 2016

    UK Retail Sales Drop in December

    Data that was published just now indicated that Britain’s retail turnover growth slowed towards the end of 2015, as a warmer than usual winter dampened demand last month. Across the Atlantic, market participants will eye manufacturing PMI and existing home sales data, scheduled for release later in the day, for further direction. Today, the Euro continues to remain exposed to further weakness against the major currencies as expectations mount around the European Central Bank (ECB) taking policy action in March. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the ECB President stated that the Governing Council was determined to act and deploy its instruments to boost inflation. On the macroeconomic front, earlier today, data indicated that the Euro zone’s private sector slowed more than expected in January, as growth in both manufacturing and services sectors eased.

  • ECB's Policy Decision and Statement Awaited
    January 21st, 2016

    ECB's Policy Decision and Statement Awaited

    Today, focus will likely be on the Euro as the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 25-member governing council meets later today to discuss its monetary policy. The ECB is unlikely to announce an expansion of its quantitative easing programme. Instead, expectations are for the President to reiterate his willingness to act again down the road if plunging oil prices weigh on the bank’s efforts to push inflation higher in the 19-nation Euro zone. Britain’s house prices ticked up in line with expectations for December, the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) showed earlier today. Later in the day, two data prints are scheduled for release in the US, including initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index.

  • UK Claimant Count and Jobless Rate Declines
    January 20th, 2016

    UK Claimant Count and Jobless Rate Declines

    This morning, Sterling remains suppressed across the board as the fallout of the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney’s speech has continued to have a prolonged downward impact on the UK currency. Also, the just out mixed Britain’s labour market print has further pressured the Pound against the major currencies. Although the numbers of the UK claimant count continued to fall in December and the jobless rate ticked lower, wage growth has slowed in November, thus failing to provide the much needed respite to Sterling traders. Across the Atlantic, the latest consumer price inflation report is scheduled for release later in the day, with headline prices expected to again remain flat for December. However, the core inflation numbers are projected to rise on an annual basis.

  • UK Inflation Rate Slightly Rises in December
    January 19th, 2016

    UK Inflation Rate Slightly Rises in December

    Inflation data dominates focus in markets across the globe today. This morning, the December annual reading for UK headline consumer price inflation came in line with market expectations of an improvement from the previous month. However, the inflation rate continues to hover close to zero, with low oil prices and a supermarket price war keeping prices in check for consumers. Going forward, if tomorrow’s UK labour report fails to show acceleration in wage growth then it is likely that the expectations for the Bank of England (BoE) policy tightening are going to be pushed further back.

  • UK’s Rightmove House Prices Rise in January
    January 18th, 2016

    UK’s Rightmove House Prices Rise in January

    In a start to the new week, uncertainty continues to weigh on the global markets amid growing concerns of a slowdown in the major economies and weaker oil prices. On the macro front, data released earlier today showed that Britain's Rightmove house price index rose in January from December. In the US, it is a quiet day for economic news due to a bank holiday and the US Dollar appears to have recovered most of its losses against the major currencies incurred last week.

  • US Retail Sales in the Limelight Today
    January 15th, 2016

    US Retail Sales in the Limelight Today

    Economic data flow from across the Atlantic will pick up pace later in the day after a slow data week. Greater market focus will be on the US retail sales report to gauge the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate in March. Additionally, investors will also keep a tab on the US producer prices data, industrial production and Michigan University’s preliminary consumer confidence index, scheduled in a few hours.

  • BoE Rate Decision and the ECB Minutes in Focus
    January 14th, 2016

    BoE Rate Decision and the ECB Minutes in Focus

    Today’s session will be dominated by news from the central banks in the UK and Europe. The Bank of England (BoE), later in the day, will publish its new monetary policy statement and announce its rate decision, although no major surprises are anticipated by the UK’s central bank. Market focus will likely be on the accompanying meeting minutes for cues that Britain’s macro trend is still on course for moderate economic growth. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) account of the December monetary policy meeting is also due today and it would attract greater market interest if the change in the current macro conditions is recognised by the central bank.

  • US Dollar Recovers Against the Euro
    January 13th, 2016

    US Dollar Recovers Against the Euro

    As some calm returned in the global markets earlier today, the US Dollar gained against the major currencies. In the session ahead, the greenback investors will eye the weekly update on mortgage applications in the US for further direction. Also, a series of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ speeches will continue along with the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book due later today.

  • UK Industrial Production Sharply Falls in November
    January 12th, 2016

    UK Industrial Production Sharply Falls in November

    The ongoing uncertainty in the global markets and weakness in oil prices continue to drive broader market sentiment today, amid lack of significant macroeconomic indicators in the major economies. As such, the UK industrial as well as manufacturing data that came out just now is likely to have taken the center-stage. Data showed that Britain’s industrial and manufacturing production slumped in November, suggesting that the economy slowed towards the end of 2015.

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