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  • Sterling Stronger after ‘Michael Fish’ Moment
    February 22nd, 2017

    Sterling Stronger after ‘Michael Fish’ Moment

    MPs grilled Bank of England officials yesterday, questioning Chief economist Andy Haldane’s statement that forecasting economic crisis is like BBC weatherman, Michael Fish’s downplaying the UK’s great storm of 1987. The pound wasn’t bothered that the bank didn’t convince MPs that it can predict future events, hitting a 2-month high against the weakened euro. Today’s just released GDP was a mixed bag: quarterly growth was above expectation, but lower for Year-on-Year GDP with 1% less business investment for the last quarter. The US dollar rose yesterday following a pair of Federal Reserve policymakers’ comments increased the likelihood of an interest rate hike next month. This seems to be the start of a rally to return the dollar to the strength it enjoyed after Trump’s surprise victory in November.

  • Bank of England: Not Possible to Forecast Next Financial Crisis
    February 22nd, 2017

    Bank of England: Not Possible to Forecast Next Financial Crisis

    Bank of England governor Mark Carney and senior colleagues have been questioned on Tuesday (21 February) by the Treasury Committee on the Bank of England’s Inflation report.

  • Theresa May’s Strategy: “A Trump Brexit?”
    February 20th, 2017

    Theresa May’s Strategy: “A Trump Brexit?”

    Peter Hain, the British Labour MP and former Welsh Secretary, has said that he will impose changes on the Brexit bill when it reaches the House of Lords today, at 4.15 pm (UK time).

  • Trump: The Leaks are Real but the News is Fake
    February 17th, 2017

    Trump: The Leaks are Real but the News is Fake

    You say, “it depends how you see it, it’s all a matter of perspective.” If you open any of today’s British or American newspapers you will find that Trump’s “extraordinary” or “combative” press conference last night (16 February) was dominated by his reiterated conviction that the media is “dishonest”, putting out fake news and doing a “disservice” to the American people.

  • No Retail Therapy for the Pound
    February 17th, 2017

    No Retail Therapy for the Pound

    Sterling and the euro were consistently stuck in the same 2 cent channel for the past month, as if cautiously watching the dollar and stock market dramatics from the sidelines. That pattern was broken today when the pound plummeted, immediately losing half a cent to the dollar on the shock of the unexpected fall in UK retail sales. Across the Atlantic, a series of excellent US reports including the construction sector, newly unemployed figures and manufacturing sentiment gave the dollar a boost. In President Trump’s first press conference he took credit for the stock market rally and hit out at the media, adding to the market jitters that ultimately led to the dollar’s biggest drop in 2 weeks.

  • Pound Steady On Dollar Jitters
    February 16th, 2017

    Pound Steady On Dollar Jitters

    The pound weakened on reports of slowing wage growth after Sterling had already lost ground on reports putting UK inflation at a three-year high. Analysts continue digesting the data for clues to navigating the unfamiliar economic road ahead. Today’s focus is on a UK household spending while tomorrow’s retail sales figures may bolster Sterling which is tenaciously refusing to yield further after this week’s losses. The dollar dipped yesterday, but has recovered some of its recent strength, especially against the embattled euro. Yesterday’s positive Consumer Price Index increased the likelihood that US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen will endorse a near future interest rate hike at the Fed’s March meeting.

  • “Colossal Scandal”: Trump Campaign’s Talks with Russia
    February 15th, 2017

    “Colossal Scandal”: Trump Campaign’s Talks with Russia

    Reports on Tuesday revealed that Trump’s campaign aides were in contact with Russian officials.

  • Pound Deflated on Wages and Inflation Data
    February 15th, 2017

    Pound Deflated on Wages and Inflation Data

    Sterling sank again today after losing a cent to the euro on the Office of National Statistics (ONS) report that inflation rose to its highest level in nearly 3 years in January. Today’s labour report is a mixed bag: wage growth has slowed but unemployment remains at its lowest level since 2006. The US dollar advanced on US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony as she introduced the possibility of a March interest rate hike. In her upbeat testimony, she answered US Senator’s questions about the US economy, saying it was growing more slowly than she wished. No new news is expected from her testimony before the US Congress today.

  • Food and Fuel push UK Inflation to 1.8 percent
    February 14th, 2017

    Food and Fuel push UK Inflation to 1.8 percent

    Inflation hit the highest level since June 2014, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday (14 February).

  • No Valentine from Mexico for Trump
    February 14th, 2017

    No Valentine from Mexico for Trump

    Sterling’s strong start this week was pulled down by today’s release of UK factory input prices. The pound’s loss of 20% of value since Brexit has resulted in the largest increase of factory prices since 2008. Inflation increased from 1.6% last month to 1.8% this month due to the fall in the pound causing rising import prices. The US dollar is going from strength to strength ahead of Federal Reserve Bank Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Senate banking committee today and tomorrow.

  • How to Save the City of London after Brexit and the CMU
    February 13th, 2017

    How to Save the City of London after Brexit and the CMU

    After Brexit and with the City of London leaving the single market, economists argue that the UK needs to be part of the Capital Markets Union and work closely with the common capital market regulatory body so that the EU develops a strong single market for capital.

  • Markets Enjoying ‘Trump-Effect’
    February 13th, 2017

    Markets Enjoying ‘Trump-Effect’

    Last week, the UK’s trio of positive data releases concluded on a bright note when the NIESR GDP Estimate came in higher than previous figures, roundly indicating continued growth. With no data releases today, Tuesday’s series of reports put inflation in focus as consumer and producer prices are seen. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US President Donald Trump established an image of a bromance to each’s and the market’s benefit at the weekend. Trump’s positive effect on global markets is next tested when his economic plans are revealed on February 28 at his first State of the Union address to Congress. This week’s key economic event is the Federal Reserve Bank Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Senate banking committee on Tuesday and Wednesday.

  • Brexit Warning: UK Patients at the “Back of the Queue”
    February 10th, 2017

    Brexit Warning: UK Patients at the “Back of the Queue”

    Experts are warning that Brexit will cause delays in pharmaceuticals for UK patients. With the UK leaving the EU, this means that Britain will also lose its cooperation with the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

  • Caution Rules Currency Markets
    February 10th, 2017

    Caution Rules Currency Markets

    The Pound made slight gains this week, as the currency markets’ stagnation reflects the growing global uncertainty. Today’s flurry of UK data releases features welcome good news: a better than anticipated increase in Industrial Production output and an increase in total trade balance. Unfortunately, as growing inflation cuts into consumer spending, families that were already ‘just about managing’ may soon find themselves in more of a jam. Across the Atlantic the spotlight is on US President Donald Trump’s plans regarding taxes and trade policies as the dollar reacted positively towards his promise to stimulate the US economy with a new tax plan. Also, US jobless rate figures are at a historic 43 year low with the creation of 227,000 new jobs in January.

  • Trump’s World War III: Apocalypse Now!
    February 09th, 2017

    Trump’s World War III: Apocalypse Now!

    It appears increasingly inevitable that Trump’s policies will accelerate America’s slow descent into a war with Russia and China.

  • Brexit Bill Clears UK’s Lower House Hurdle
    February 09th, 2017

    Brexit Bill Clears UK’s Lower House Hurdle

    British Prime Minister, Theresa May is now one step closer to triggering Brexit as the UK’s House of Commons cleared May's Brexit bill that allows the UK government to initiate formal talks to exit the European Union (EU). From the British economic calendar today, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) house price balance surprisingly advanced in January. Further ahead in the day, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney is scheduled to deliver a speech in London. In the Eurozone, German trade surplus narrowed for December. Later today, US weekly jobless claims along with speeches from 2 Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are likely to grab attention. Meanwhile, headlines from Washington will continue to dictate market sentiment as traders look for further details on the US President, Donald Trump’s campaign promises.

  • Brexit Bill Set for Final Vote in the House of Commons
    February 08th, 2017

    Brexit Bill Set for Final Vote in the House of Commons

    Focus is on the outcome of the Article 50 bill that’s set to be put for voting in the House of Commons today. Members will hold a final debate on the set of amendments, including key principles of the Brexit negotiation process. Separately, Scotland’s parliament has overwhelmingly rejected the UK government’s plan to leave the European Union, with four of its five political parties voting against starting the Brexit process. On the data front, there are no major economic releases from either the UK and the Eurozone today, while the Bank of England’s (BoE) Deputy Governor, Jon Cunliffe will deliver a speech later in the day. Meanwhile in the US, weekly mortgage applications data is up for release.

  • British Consumers Start to Feel the Pinch
    February 07th, 2017

    British Consumers Start to Feel the Pinch

    Unlike yesterday, there are a bunch of economic releases scheduled across the world today which are bound to keep global economy watchers busy. In the UK, a report by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) revealed that retail sales dipped in January, adding to signs that Brits might be tightening their purse strings amid rising inflation. Separately, house prices in the UK dipped for the first time since mid-2016. From the Eurozone data space, German industrial production unexpectedly declined in December. Across the Atlantic, market participants will receive an update on the JOLTS job openings for last year’s close. In addition to this, the US trade balance and consumer credit change data, are also up for release later in the day.

  • Trump’s Authoritarianism and Twitter Wars
    February 07th, 2017

    Trump’s Authoritarianism and Twitter Wars

    Reporting on the Muslim travel ban, the Boston Globe, in a seemingly jokey manner, but with some serious intent, said that, “Adult supervision, in the form of a federal judge in Seattle, has temporarily restored sanity to our immigration laws after nine hectic days.”

  • A Quiet Start to The Week
    February 06th, 2017

    A Quiet Start to The Week

    The global economic calendar is quiet today. In the Eurozone, the just released data showed that the region’s Sentix investor confidence index declined in February. Meanwhile, German factory orders surged to an over 2-year high level in December. Later in the day, the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, is scheduled to testify before the European Parliament in Brussels. The UK data docket remains empty for today. Thus, investors will continue to focus on any developments around the Article 50 trigger. In the US, labour market conditions index is up for release and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia President, Patrick Harker is set to speak at a conference in San Diego later today.

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